Suzi Gage wrote an article describing a study I recently published in PLOS ONE
that shows new evidence of why tobacco taxation policy effects may have
stalled in the US. The novel aspect of the paper is that it is the
first to explicitly examine whether genetic variation may partially
explain the different reactions of people when faced with higher taxes.
Tobacco
control policymakers face a puzzle in that some people seem not to care
about high prices on cigarettes – they continue to smoke in the face of
higher and higher rates. My paper suggests that genetic differences,
which could be measuring differences in the pleasure people receive from
nicotine consumption, may be partially responsible for the reactions
(and non-reactions) we see in the world to tobacco taxes. The main
finding is that people who are at high genetic risk of being a smoker
seem to be unpersuaded by higher taxes.
Gage
summarised my paper as "poorly conducted research" that is a "gift to
opponents of tobacco control". These are two different issues that I
address in this response. For the first issue, Gage suggests there are a
number of alternative explanations of my main finding. First, let me
point out that research can be well conducted and at the same time be
consistent with alternative explanations – there is a separation between
the design of the research and the interpretation of the research.
Alas, it seems that merging these two issues into a blanket "poorly
conducted research" label is easier to do and may lead to more retweets
than separating the issues.
The first issue that Gage outlines is
that the model is incorrect – there are multiple ways of modelling a
statistical interaction (genes and taxes), and I chose one. This is a
fair critique in that it is impossible to know if the model is "true".
Of course Gage has no evidence that what I do is wrong and suggests no
specific alternative, but fair enough.
The second issue is that
she claims that taxes and genes should not affect each other. Of course,
this could be a fair point too, but it has no relationship to what I do
in the paper – indeed it is a maintained assumption in my analysis.
A
third issue raised is a list of "what I do not do" in the paper. Of
course no paper does "everything" – but at issue is whether what I do is
interesting and well done (rather than "poorly conducted") and this
list says little relevant in evaluating her claim or providing an
alternative explanation for my actual finding.
Finally, Gage
suggests that other policies may also differ by state. Sure (but
unlikely in the early 1990s in the US), but is she suggesting that I am
finding differential effects of clean air laws rather than to tobacco
taxes? Even if true (which it is not), does that really undercut the
main question of whether genetics can shape responses to policy? Probably not.
This
leads to a main point: "Imperfect" research is not the same as "poorly
conducted" research. Most research is imperfect and some research is
indeed poorly conducted. In my opinion, the issues Gage raises
qualifies my paper in the former rather than latter category.
Gage
then describes that even if my paper contains a "true finding", that
does not matter because it is not policy-relevant, as governments will
probably not genotype people in order to personalise policies.
A
few responses to this narrow view. First, it is important for us to know
why tobacco taxation seems to have stalled, even if the government will
not genotype people. This is a basic point of policy evaluation – we
want to know why policies work (or don't) and for whom. Indeed, my
findings suggest that if tobacco taxation may not work for half the
population, we might consider moving resources into other tobacco
control policies (rather than putting more effort into a policy that may
not work).
Another implication of the finding is that tobacco
taxation works twice as well as we thought before, but it works really
well on half the population but not well on the other half. That is good
to know as a policymaker and as someone interested in the key
determinants of tobacco use. All of this is lost in Gage's discussion.
Two
final points. First, just because a finding can be used for evil by
industry does not mean we should censor or question the finding, as
implied by Gage's description of my research as a "gift". Some well done
science will be used by "evil corporations".
Second, it is truly
frustrating and disappointing that such an inflammatory headline
("poorly conducted research") was used in the Guardian to describe my
paper without any discussion with me (or any others with relevant
expertise as far as I can tell) to clarify the various mistakes and
points of contention that Gage makes in her post. The headline was an
affront to my professional reputation as a researcher and the post was
an affront to the perceived quality of the Guardian.
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